Compass offers an elevated approach to luxury, drawing on a deep understanding of the ultra-luxury consumer. At Compass, we blend sophisticated data insights with intimate knowledge of market dynamics to craft refined, bespoke marketing strategies that resonate with the desires and aspirations of discerning clients. By harnessing the power of analytics and a profound cultural awareness of luxury, we empower clients to make judicious, impactful decisions in a market characterized by both opportunities and competition.
Looking ahead to 2025, the outlook for the ultra-luxury real estate market remains optimistic. Two key drivers fuel this optimism: wealth creation and wealth transfers. High-net-worth individuals continue to grow their fortunes, supported by gains in financial markets, robust economic activity, and strategic wealth management. Moreover, an unprecedented transfer of wealth is underway as older generations pass significant assets to their heirs. This influx of liquidity is fueling a new wave of buyers entering the ultra-luxury market, increasing demand for exclusive properties despite inventory challenges.
High-net-worth individuals are well-positioned to navigate broader economic fluctuations. They are often less affected by rising mortgage rates and can leverage alternative financing or cash purchases. With the Trump 2.0 administration expected to enact business-friendly policies to sustain wealth creation, affluent buyers are poised to remain active in the market. Their focus on lifestyle, legacy, and strategic investments ensures ongoing engagement in key ultra-luxury markets.
While low inventory remains a persistent challenge, the ultra-luxury sector’s resilience stems from the high demand for premier properties that cater to elevated tastes. In the ultra-luxury real estate market, long-term value is paramount. From iconic destinations to private exclusives offering unmatched discretion, this segment is well-positioned for a strong year in 2025.
Looking ahead, I’ll explore how these wealth-driven trends, combined with other emerging shifts, are set to shape the market in 2025.
The Compass Ultra Luxury Report 2024
The Compass Luxury Division publishes several reports per year, with the year-end report being the most highly anticipated. It covers the gamut of $10+ Million sales throughout the United States. You can view a copy online here.
Trends Shaping the Luxury Market in 2025
Compass Private Exclusives
Private listings are gaining increasing influence in the ultra-luxury real estate market. To support this shift, Compass equips homeowners with Compass Private Exclusives, a marketing strategy traditionally employed by top-tier homebuilders and real estate developers. This proactive approach allows agents to start marketing homes well in advance of traditional timelines, strategically managing their market presence, avoiding exposure to public days on market or price drop history, and gaining data-backed insights on how buyers are engaging with a listing to refine the price and positioning as needed. Furthermore, high-net-worth individuals are drawn to the privacy, exclusivity, and tailored nature of private listings, making them a key component of buying and selling within this segment. These transactions not only offer discretion but also create opportunities for personalized strategies and greater flexibility during negotiations.
 In 2024, the East Bay luxury real estate market revealed a sophisticated shift: 50% of our team’s luxury transactions occurred privately. This trend underscores the growing preference for strategic, discreet sales that prioritize flexibility and personalized approaches over traditional market exposure. –Dana Green, Compass East Bay
Inventory Levels
A persistent challenge in ultra-luxury markets is inventory constraints. Across the U.S., the availability of high-end homes remains limited, with demand consistently outpacing supply.
Continuing to outpace supply, the scarcity has led to heightened competition for turnkey and move-in-ready properties, especially those offering modern amenities and prime locations. While some markets have experienced slight inventory increases, they still fall far short of pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the ongoing challenge of meeting buyer demand.
Ultra Luxury Demand Remains Strong
In 2024, the ultra-luxury residential real estate market demonstrated remarkable resilience and strength across the nation. A total of 1,744 homes sold for $10 million and above, generating an impressive $31.39 billion in sales.
In the ultra-luxury real estate market, 2024 surpassed 2023 figures, reflecting the enduring demand for exceptional properties. This robust performance is fueled by two primary drivers: wealth creation and wealth transfers. Ultra-high-net-worth individuals have experienced significant fortune growth through gains in financial markets, thriving economic sectors, and strategic wealth management. Moreover, the ongoing generational wealth transfer has introduced a new wave of affluent buyers into the market, further intensifying demand for exclusive properties.
Manhattan once again led the nation’s top market, with 307 sales and a total sales volume of $7.55 billion. Other key markets, such as Greater Los Angeles, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach County, also performed exceptionally well. Collectively, the top ten markets accounted for nearly 70% of all ultra-luxury sales.
Beyond the strong performances in established hubs, emerging markets also demonstrated remarkable growth. Seventy-eight percent of markets with double-digit transactions surpassed their prior year totals. Snowmass Village, Colorado, led the growth with a 66.7% increase, followed by Tampa Bay and Sarasota with a 50% increase and Lake Tahoe with a 47.8% increase.
The ultra-luxury real estate market’s 2024 performance underscores the enduring appeal of owning high-quality, unique properties. This momentum, driven by sustained wealth growth and anticipated favorable economic conditions for ultra-luxury buyers, bodes well for another promising year in 2025.
Ranking Markets by $10+ Million Sales
The following tables provide a snapshot of the total number of and volume of $10 million-plus sales in 2024 across all brokerages in the top 10 US markets, ranked by performance. This data is compiled from public MLS data across the US.
Total # of $10+ Million Sales, by Market
| Market | State | Sales ($10M+) |
|---|---|---|
| Manhattan | New York | 307 |
| Greater Los Angeles | California | 190 |
| Miami Dade | Florida | 152 |
| Palm Beach County | Florida | 132 |
| Orange County | California | 107 |
| Silicon Valley & Peninsula | California | 72 |
| Southwest Florida | Florida | 72 |
| The Hamptons | New York | 70 |
| Aspen | Colorado | 58 |
| San Diego | California | 56 |
Total Volume of $10+ Million Sales, by market
| Market | State | Sales Volume ($10M+) |
|---|---|---|
| Manhattan | New York | $7.55B |
| Greater Los Angeles | California | $3.33B |
| Miami Dade | Florida | $2.73B |
| Palm Beach County | Florida | $2.48B |
| Orange County | California | $1.58B |
| Aspen | Colorado | $1.41B |
| The Hamptons | New York | $1.15B |
| Silicon Valley & Peninsula | California | $1.06B |
| Southwest Florida | Florida | $1.03B |
| San Diego | California | $835.76M |
Ultra Luxury Real Estate Sales in Northern California
Northern California’s ultra-luxury real estate market demonstrated resilience and exclusivity in 2024, as affluent buyers continued to seek premier properties despite inventory challenges. Iconic markets such as Silicon Valley, Carmel, Pebble Beach, and Napa Valley remained in high demand, fueled by a mix of wealth creation, lifestyle-driven preferences, and strategic investments. Notably, Silicon Valley and the Peninsula saw a robust $1.06 billion in $10M+ sales, with buyers prioritizing large estates featuring indoor-outdoor living spaces, advanced entertainment options, and unique design elements. In Carmel and Pebble Beach, record-breaking sales like the $45 million private transaction on Cypress Drive underscored the region’s enduring appeal. As Northern California blends natural beauty with access to tech hubs and cultural amenities, it continues to be a top choice for ultra-high-net-worth individuals looking for exclusivity, discretion, and long-term value.
Silicon Valley
The ultra-luxury market in Silicon Valley is exceptionally unique. It boasts a diverse blend of cultures and backgrounds that create stunning one-of-a-kind masterpieces.
In 2024, the ultra-luxury market in 94010 experienced a slight decline in sales, yet the top end of the market continues to attract buyers seeking larger and more exclusive homes. What I’m observing is a shift in priorities—both buyers and sellers are increasingly valuing local experts who possess a deep understanding of the intricacies of this market. As Isadore Sharp, the founder of Four Seasons, once articulated, “Luxury is a profound sense of belonging, a dedicated focus on how individuals desire to be treated, grounded in genuine care… defined by an abundance of humanity and generosity.” I firmly believe that this philosophy holds even greater significance in the luxury real estate sector today.
Woodside, Atherton, and Portola Valley are poised for a significant surge in activity within the $10-30 million plus range. Although the market may not be as active as in 2022 and 2023, it shows promising signs with a substantial pool of buyers searching for the perfect home. Indoor/outdoor entertainment remains a top priority, and much of the new or recently built inventory features spacious basement levels designed for top-notch entertainment. Elevators, whimsical slides between levels, or firepoles are just a few of the unique features that set these homes apart. Lavish firepits, custom pizza ovens, stunning gardens, entertainment cabanas, and detached ADUs are increasingly common amenities.
Carmel, Monterey, and Pebble Beach
With equity and cryptocurrency markets consistently reaching all-time highs, sales activity for properties priced above $10 million accelerated during the second half of 2024. Carmel-by-the-Sea stood out as the market leader, with notable sales ranging from $12.5 million to $18.55 million. The Carmel Highlands and Big Sur witnessed the sale of the $18 million, 350-acre Newell Ranch, which was represented by Jonathan Spencer, who acted as both the buyer and seller. Additionally, a $19.3 million monastery was sold in the region. Notably, 2024’s largest sale was recorded in Carmel-by-the-Sea.
Santa Cruz County
Santa Cruz County’s luxury real estate market continues to thrive, redefining luxury with its coastal allure. In 2024, 49 sales exceeded $3 million, with the highest at $8.75 million, highlighting the region’s growing appeal. Anchored by the breathtaking convergence of redwoods and coastline, and enhanced by proximity to Silicon Valley, Santa Cruz County offers a unique blend of natural beauty and outdoor lifestyle. This emerging market continues to captivate discerning buyers, with the top 10 highest sales all near the ocean.
Despite the market’s success, Santa Cruz County’s luxury market remains undervalued, presenting an attractive opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on this growing trend.
Compared to much of California’s coastline, the ultra-luxury market in Santa Cruz, Capitola, Aptos, Rio del Mar, Seascape, and La Selva Beach has shown remarkable resilience in 2024. In contrast to the 30+ homes sold between $4M and $10M in 2022 and 22 in 2023, only 19 homes sold in this price range in 2024. However, these prime neighborhoods benefit from enduring fundamentals such as a temperate climate, limited blufftop and beachfront supply, and proximity to Silicon Valley’s wealth density. These factors ensure steady long-term demand, making the highly localized luxury market a lucrative opportunity for savvy investors.
Santa Cruz’s allure lies in its breathtaking beauty, making it no wonder that the Luxury and Ultra Luxury markets here have demonstrated remarkable resilience and continue to fetch record prices and equity positions.
San Francisco
In contrast, San Francisco’s ultra-luxury market also showed remarkable resilience in 2024. Premium properties commanded stronger sale-to-list price ratios compared to 2023, particularly in the second half of the year when buyer confidence surged, leading to accelerated transactions and shorter market times. Iconic views and architectural significance dominated buyer interest, as evidenced by the landmark $22 million sale of the Robertson Estate in Russian Hill. This sale underscores the clear trend of a “flight to quality” as buyers remain highly selective but are decisive when exceptional properties meet all their criteria.
When interest rates rose, the luxury market hit a notable slowdown. Buyers froze, while sellers still held onto prices they could have achieved earlier. However, life goes on, and those committed to the city eventually stopped sitting on the sidelines and started buying again. Those who want to be here can only wait so long if they need to upsize, downsize, or relocate for new jobs or life events.
Given our tech-driven economy, we anticipate a strong market in the first quarter of 2025. However, there is a potential downside of a possible shortage of inventory. Buyers are back and are poised to make informed decisions and take action.
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Silicon Valley Luxury Homes for Sale
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