2018 California Housing Forecast


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Watch the 2018 California Housing Forecast Video

Also available in audio-only format on the Bay to Bay Podcast

Last October, I was fortunate enough to attend the California Association of Realtors Conference and Expo in San Diego.  One of the highlights of the multi-day event was the presentation given by Leslie Appleton-Young, the Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).  The presentation was a 2018 California Housing Forecast, and included very detailed charts and statistics.

I recorded the audio of the presentation on my iPhone and received the PowerPoint slides later from Leslie herself.  With the audio and the slides, I was able to create the video you see here on this page.

It should be noted that the much of the presentation details what had already happened in California in 2017.  After all, much of what will happen in 2018 will be dictated by what happened in the past.  And some of the presentation is intended for the audience seated in the hall that day, that is to say, members of the California Association of REALTORS. But most of the information will be of considerable interest to anyone who is concerned with housing in California.  Given the incredibly high cost of housing here, I figure you’ll be interested in a lot of this information whether you rent or own.

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Key Points from the 2018 California Housing Forecast

  • US economic and job growth expanding
    • Job growth continuing, but slowing, in California
  • Mortgage interest rates rising to 4.3% average for year
  • U.S. GDP to grow 2.3% in 2018 (vs. 2.1.% in 2017)
  • U.S. Unemployment at 4.2% in 2018
    • vs. 4.6% projected for California
  • Inflation at 2.2% in 2018
  • U.S. Disposable Income Growth of 3.0%
    • vs. 4.3% for California
  • California Non-Farm Job Growth @ 1.2%
  • California Population Increase of 0.8% (to 40 million)
  • 31.7% of homes sold to 1st time buyers in California
    • vs. 50% nationally
  • 3% of California homes sold in 2017 went to international buyers
    • vs 8% in 2013
  • 1% increase in number of home sales over 2017
  • 4.2% increase in median home price (to $561,000)

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