Bay Area Real Estate Market Set to Explode in 2016

California Housing 2016 Explosion

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California Housing 2016 Explosion

Bay Area Real Estate 2016 Explosion

Ahh, a new year, and as always there’s no shortage of prognostications of what we can expect in days, weeks, and months ahead. Predicting the future is a notoriously risky business, as of course, anything could happen in the next few minutes which would drastically alter any outlook. But setting aside the possibility of any black swan events, I can confidently say that the bay area real estate market is set to explode in 2016.

Why do I say that? Well, a few days ago, I posted about how 12 of the 20 hottest markets in the entire U.S.A. are in fact in California. And, surprise surprise, many of them are in the Bay Area: #1 San Francisco, #2 Vallejo, #4 San Jose, #17 Santa Cruz. And for good measure, I’ll mention that four more are in northern California: #7 Sacramento, #8 Santa Rosa, and #10 Stockton and #13 Yuba City.

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The heat from the past year alone is plenty of indication that the year to come should be pretty darn smokin’ no matter what. But forget last year – what about last month? Normally, December is the sleepiest month in the real estate business. Tummies are full from Thanksgiving, and heads are swimming from too much eggnog and Candy Crush. The weather is chilly (unless of course you’re on the east coast) and the days are shorter. It’s no surprise that in a month like December, most of the real estate community can usually be found sleeping pretty late. This past December, however, the market was anything but sleepy. It was, in a word, ripping.

Just how ripping was it? Check out these two charts here (red = new listings, green = closed sales):

Santa Clara Listings vs. Sales

Santa Clara Listings vs. Sales 2015

Santa Cruz Listings vs. Sales

Santa Cruz Listings vs. Sales 2015

Look at what happened in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties – in November, but especially December. The number of sales far exceeded the number of new listings coming on the market – a dramatic change from what usually happens, and what happened in nearly every month prior. The market gobbled up virtually all of the good inventory of homes – and now there’s nothing left to buy. Buyers are out there in a feeding frenzy, but more often than not, they’re coming up empty.

Of course, new inventory is coming on the market to meet demand, but it’s really doubtful we’ll see enough supply this year. It looks to me like 2016 is going to be the best time to sell a home in the bay area as long as I’ve been in the real estate business – and that’s 13 years now. If you’re considering selling your home this year, let’s get in touch today!

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