There's No Time Like the Present to Sell your Home in Silicon Valley - Seb Frey, Silicon Valley + Bay Area REALTOR

If you’re paying attention to the headlines lately, you’re perhaps a bit alarmed by what you’re seeing. The stock market is see-sawing violently up and down, bond yields are soaring, and the U.S. dollar is losing value. In turbulent times like these – in periods of market volatility – investors pour into bonds and the dollar strengthens as a safe haven. But right now, we’re seeing exactly the opposite.

So what’s going on? And, more importantly, what does this mean for you if you’re thinking about selling your home in Silicon Valley?

Let’s talk about it.

Let’s begin with the bond market. Why are bond yields shooting up right now? It’s because investors—both foreign and domestic—are selling off U.S. bonds. When bond prices fall, yields rise, and that’s exactly what’s happening. A big part of this is coming from countries like China, which has historically been one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries.

But over the past several months, China has been steadily reducing its holdings. There are a few reasons for that: growing tensions between the U.S. and China, a desire to diversify into other assets like gold, and pressure to support their own currency, the yuan. When a major player like China pulls back from buying U.S. debt—or starts actively selling it—that adds downward pressure on bond prices and sends yields higher. And because mortgage rates track closely with the 10-year Treasury, that’s one of the big reasons we’re seeing home loan rates spike past 7% again.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar is falling in value. Typically, in times of global uncertainty, the dollar gets stronger as investors flock to it as a safe haven—but that’s not what we’re seeing right now. There are concerns (perhaps you share them!) about America’s growing debt and long-term fiscal health which are starting to weigh on confidence in the dollar. When foreign buyers and institutions pull back on buying U.S. assets, that reduces demand for the dollar, pushing its value down. And when the dollar weakens, it can add to inflationary pressure—keeping mortgage rates elevated and putting even more stress on buyers.

All of this is feeding directly into the housing market. Mortgage rates are now back above 7%, and that’s putting pressure on buyers — especially first-time buyers who are sensitive to monthly payment amounts. Even in an area like Silicon Valley, where many homes are bought with significant cash, rising mortgage rates still matter (especially when stock portfolios are taking a hit). They affect move-up buyers, investors, and buyers relocating from outside the area who need financing.

So what does this mean if you’re a homeowner thinking about selling?

Here’s the honest answer: It’s a complicated time, but that doesn’t mean you should sit on your hands.

Right now, inventory is still relatively low in most Silicon Valley neighborhoods. Well-priced, well-prepared homes are still selling quickly — and in many cases, with multiple offers. Buyers are more cautious, yes, but many are serious and well-capitalized (having recently liquidated some of their stock holdings).

If you’ve been waiting for the perfect time to sell (especially if you feel like you missed the boat), here’s what I’ll say: perfection rarely comes. What matters most is your personal timeline, your financial goals, and how you position your home in today’s market.

Yes, mortgage rates will probably stay high through the end of the year. And yes, we could see more volatility. But if you’re holding onto a property for which there is a large and eager market — and if you want to unlock your equity before rates rise further or demand softens — now may be a smart window to act.

I talk to a lot of people about selling their homes, and many of them feel like they did miss the market, and that this is not a good time to sell. To that, I say that “good” is a relative term. Without question, this is a much better time to sell than any point in 2008 or 2009.

True, it is not as good a time as, say, 2021 – yet prices today throughout much of the Bay Area are at least marginally higher than they were in 2021.

But what if a sinking stock market led to increased unemployment while soaring bond yield rates continued to push mortgage rates higher? What would that mean for housing inventory – and housing demand?

And, ultimately, what would an environment like that mean for your home value? An environment which could last for several years…or longer?

I’m going to say it wouldn’t be a positive impact. In which case, today – before all of that happens – would in fact turn out to be a very good time to sell indeed.

So if you knew for sure that would happen, how would that influence the timing of the sale of your home?

I don’t know what the future holds – nobody does. But it’s a fact that housing prices go up, and down – and they’ve been going up just about fifteen straight years now. The housing bears have long been predicting a price correction – and this time, it feels like they may just be right.

What do you think? Let me know!