Should you sell this fall or wait for spring? For many Silicon Valley homeowners, “just wait for spring” feels like the safe choice. But after 23 years of selling homes in the area, I’ve seen how quickly that plan can backfire when mortgage rates and buyer urgency change.
The 2026 market has played out in three acts. Spring was weaker than many expected, followed by a typical summer lull. Then, after Labor Day, the 10-year Treasury rose and pushed mortgage rates higher. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate climbed from 6.76% to 7.28% in just three weeks. As rates rose, buyer urgency cooled and homes started sitting longer.
For some sellers who waited, offers disappeared, price cuts piled up, and final proceeds dropped by as much as $100,000. We saw something similar in spring 2022, when rising rates changed the market almost overnight.
Spring isn’t always the best time to list, either. The best listing window and the spring premium in San Jose shifted between 2024 and 2025. Spring can also bring more competition from other sellers, and buyers often notice when a home has been listed before.
Nobody knows for sure where mortgage rates are headed, and rate forecasts have a way of being wrong. That’s why your own circumstances should matter more than predictions. Many home sales are driven by life events, and delaying can add costs and family stress. Fall can still be a strong selling window, while a mispriced home won’t sell well in any season.
If you need more time, use it to prepare the house and your paperwork instead of simply waiting. The question to ask is whether you would rather take on the risk of today’s market or the uncertainty of the next one.
Timing should be based on your circumstances, not on hope that the market will improve later.
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From the Monterey Bay Wayback Machine
The Loma Prieta Earthquake Shakes Santa Cruz County (October 17, 1989)
At 5:04 p.m., the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake struck with its epicenter in the Forest of Nisene Marks State Park near Aptos. In downtown Santa Cruz, the Pacific Garden Mall was severely damaged, and dozens of buildings collapsed or later had to be demolished. Across Northern California, the quake killed 63 people and injured more than 3,700. It also interrupted Game 3 of the World Series at Candlestick Park, as millions watched on live television. The recovery reshaped downtown Santa Cruz in the years that followed.
This Week in Santa Cruz County
Rep. Jimmy Panetta and Local Health Leaders Sound the Alarm on Medicare Access
With Medicare open enrollment beginning October 15, Rep. Jimmy Panetta met with local physicians, hospital leaders, and community health providers at Santa Cruz Community Health’s Live Oak Health Center to discuss the future of Medicare and healthcare access for seniors in Santa Cruz County.
A key concern is that many seniors have trouble finding local doctors who accept new Medicare patients. Medicare physician payments have not kept pace with inflation, making it harder for practices to recruit and keep doctors in a high-cost region. A 2022 California Medical Association survey found that 76% of responding physicians said traditional Medicare payments don’t cover their costs, and 41% planned to close their practices to new Medicare patients. Rising Part D drug plan premiums were also discussed.
Hospice of Santa Cruz County CEO Cathy Conway noted that the Medicare Hospice Benefit has not been updated since it began in 1982. Panetta pointed to bipartisan bills he supports that would tie physician payments to inflation and reduce administrative burdens.
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Date: Wednesday, October 14
Time: 7:30 pm
Location: Santa Cruz Civic Auditorium, 307 Church Street, Santa Cruz
Legendary singer and guitarist Bonnie Raitt brings her blend of blues, rock, and R&B to the Santa Cruz Civic Auditorium, with special guest Jon Cleary opening the night. It’s a great chance to catch one of music’s most celebrated performers right here in Santa Cruz.
Santa Cruz Comedy Fest
Date: Thursday, October 15
Time: 7:30 pm – 9:00 pm
Location: Mission West, 2405 Mission Street, Santa Cruz
Laugh the night away on the Westside as the Santa Cruz Comedy Fest comes to Mission West, headlined by San Francisco comedian Brett Harper Jennings. Doors open at 7:00 pm. This show is for ages 21 and over.
Wilder Ranch Harvest Festival
Date: Saturday, October 17
Time: 11:00 am – 4:00 pm
Location: Wilder Ranch State Park, 1401 Coast Road, Santa Cruz
Step back in time at the Wilder Ranch State Park Harvest Festival. Enjoy living history demonstrations, crafts, games, live music, and food, plus a Heritage Apple Tasting hosted by the California Rare Fruit Growers Association.
Branciforte Library Friends Book Sale
Date: Saturday, October 17
Time: 11:00 am – 3:00 pm
Location: Branciforte Branch Library, 230 Gault Street, Santa Cruz
Cozy up with a great book this fall at the Friends of the Library Fall Book Sale. Browse thousands of gently loved books, from novels and children’s titles to hidden literary treasures. Every purchase supports the library’s programs, collections, and community events.
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Senior Friendly Homes in Silicon Valley South
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